Having mentioned a “small ball” approach in a recent blog post, I realized afterward that of course, it has an opposite number.
These strategies and their uses are well known. They might as well be called the Loser’s Friend, as they are typically employed either by someone so far ahead that they have nothing better to do but rub it in, or so far behind that the drawbacks of these strategies are no longer meaningful. If you are losing anyway the low percentage of success is suddenly HIGHER than your chances otherwise were. It’s time for a Hail Mary.
So besides understanding the situation, what can you do to increase your (probably terrible) odds in a Hail Mary situation?
Counter-intuitively, practice is usually a requirement, not because people like planning to lose, but because they know these situations come up. It’s called “Plan B” not just “B” for a reason. David didn’t go after Goliath with any untried weapons, he chose tools he was good with (even turning down the king’s own sword) before taking on impossible odds. These strategies are also known as Asymmetrical Strategies because they are often used when two opponents are wildly unequal in expected strength. “Terrorism” is commonly used to inflate tactics that actually do little damage to one side, but cause very strong feelings and allow the smaller side to continue to wage a conflict that they would lose terribly in open battle.
Heavily mismatched chess players are likely to choose the wildest lines of openings. A weaker player may be trying to “get lucky” with a neat tactic not wanting a close battle that he knows he will lose, whereas the stronger player may simply be trying to save time.
Occasionally, Asymmetrical Strategies actually run the other direction, the high cost of a standard business license in the state of California, or the general need for large amount of capital to compete in business are both strategies that heavily favor the already powerful. This happens to have the unintended consequence that terrorist recruiters can focus on those people disenfranchised by a system that perpetuates such things, but it does keep down the competition from those trying to enter the market.
The trouble with a Hail Mary strategy, is that they are often well known to both sides, and those who have the lead may engage in what American Football fans will know as a “prevent defense”. It may be a long shot to begin with but there are still counter-strategies for these oft-tried tricks. Sometimes, an opponent may have a real weakness as in the tale of Achilles. If you spot it, you should already know what to do. For example, ISIS lacks funding, and only has a finite number of ways to replenish their coffers, usually kidnappings and wealthy donors (their Hail Mary). Saudi Arabia might be on the right trail with their very large fence separating them from the more extreme elements (the prevent defense). A fence that actually encircled them, and allowed them to be trapped under siege could leave their 8 million inhabitants starving and unable to fight, or replenish their ranks. Alas, a fence on just one border does little to slow down the so-called “caliphate”. It’s imperative that it also cut off their finances, and ability to generate new recruits, or else you’ve merely built a picket fence for their new front yard.
wheresthefuckingcocaine 